OTHER EXPERTS:
Five years for reliever Ryan makes no sense
Ken Rosenthal / Sportsintro.com
Posted: 11 hours ago
 
On the list of bad contracts, this one would rank among the worst. Five years, $47 million for left-hander B.J. Ryan, a free-agent reliever who has been a closer for exactly one season and never pitched in a late-season pennant race.

Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi and club president Paul Godfrey would not confirm the signing Saturday night, perhaps sensing that they're about to be fitted for industry dunce caps.

Several major-league executives were in disbelief when they heard the reported terms. Their shock will turn to anger if the deal is completed and they are forced to bid for free agents in a grossly inflated market. Major League Baseball officials would be equally outraged, knowing their pleas for fiscal responsibility are again being ignored.

"It's so shocking, it's almost laughable," one executive said of the Ryan deal.

Almost.

B.J. Ryan is the latest beneficiary of a bloated free agent market. (Rob Leiter / Getty Images)

Ryan's contract would be the largest ever given to a reliever in total dollars ! yes, bigger than anything the Yankees ever awarded Mariano Rivera, a future Hall of Famer. The last reliever to secure a commitment of five years or more is believed to be Bruce Sutter, who received a six-year deal from the Braves after the 1984 season. Sutter's total package was worth $10 million ! slightly more than Ryan will earn per year.

Granted, the Jays must overpay to lure U.S.-born players to Canada. Granted, the team plans to spend $160 million in payroll over the next two seasons. And granted, the competition for Ryan was considerable; the Indians were willing to go four years and possibly five for the closer, though not at the average annual value the Jays reportedly will pay.

The Jays know they must add dominant pitching to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East. Still, it would make little sense for Toronto, a franchise with relatively modest resources, to invest so heavily in a 70-inning closer when it also needs two hitters and a starting pitcher.

Three years, $27 million would be a more sensible price for Ryan, and frankly, even that sounds high ! all but the best relievers fluctuate in performance from year-to-year. Then again, Ryan wouldn't be the last free agent who gets ridiculously overpaid this off-season. The industry is awash in revenue, and the owners are following their historical pattern, spending as mindlessly as Paris Hilton and making players wealthy enough to date her.

Every free agent would figure to benefit from the Ryan deal, starting with left-hander Billy Wagner, who is the most attractive closer in this year's market. Wagner, who has 284 career saves to Ryan's 42, has been trying to wangle a fourth year out of the Mets. Cough it up, Metsies ! and maybe add an option for a fifth year.

That's how free agency works, and Ryan's contract would dwarf last year's market-buster ! the three-year, $22.5 million gift that the Mets awarded right-hander Kris Benson. That deal merely elevated salaries for other mediocre starting pitchers. Ryan's contract, much as teams might try to portray it as an aberration, could have an even greater trickle-down effect:

  • It could raise the bar not just for Wagner, but also the other closers in this year's free-agent class: Trevor Hoffman, Tom Gordon, Bob Wickman, Todd Jones, Kyle Farnsworth, etc.

  • It almost certainly would elevate the prices of other top free agents. If the Jays were willing to give Ryan $47 million for five years, how high would they go for right-handed starter A.J. Burnett, to whom they offered $50 million over five years? How high would the Cubs go for shortstop Rafael Furcal, who is believed to be seeking $50 million over five?

  • Finally, it would influence future arbitration numbers for fifth-year closers, who are permitted to compare their accomplishments to past free agents.

    Let's not forget the potential effect on Ryan, either. He would need to contend not only with the pressure of closing ! pressure that cracks many pitchers ! but also the pressure of performing under a highly scrutinized contract.

    The deal would make no sense for a pitcher with Ryan's job description or track record, no sense for the Blue Jays, no sense in any historical context.

    Ricciardi, who previously worked in Oakland under Billy Beane, a GM known for properly valuing players, might never live this down.

    Five years, $47 million for B.J. Ryan.

    Nuts.

    Ken Rosenthal is the senior baseball writer for Sportsintro.com.

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